Will Mahathir put Mukhriz on front line?

By Wong Chin Huat

Let us be very clear that straight fight alone will not guarantee the Opposition – Pakatan Harapan or PAS – a victory over Umno/BN in Sungai Besar or Kuala Kangsar.

Yes, Umno won both seats with wafer-thin margins, 399 in Sungai Besar and 1,082 in Kuala Kangsar. Umno’s valid vote shares were only 50.54 per cent in Sungai Besar and 51.14 per cent in Kuala Kangsar.

Since the Pakatan Rakyat won 49.46 per cent and 47.25 per cent of valid votes in Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar, why can’t the opposition candidates just ride on these as their solid bases, as long as there is no multi-corner fight?

Simple – Pakatan Rakyat is gone.

If the single opposition candidate is from Amanah or PKR, he or she will simply be rejected by some PAS hardcore supporters.

On the other hand, if the opposition candidates come from PAS, they are likely to be rejected by most of the non-Malay voters – 33 per cent in Sungai Besar and 32 per cent in Kuala Kangsar – and some Amanah hardcore supporters.

Won’t Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak matter more than the PAS-Amanah rivalry? The answer is unfortunately no.

PAS has made it clear in Kelantan that it would rather lose the state government than to negotiate constituency allocation with Amanah.

The calculation is crystal clear – PAS can afford to lose badly in both federal and state elections but Amanah could be written off easily if it doesn't win a decent number of seats, or so would PAS hope.

And given PAS’ explicit support for Najib and and Datuk Seri Abdul Hadi Awang’s statement that non-Muslims must be made politically subservient, even if DAP were to campaign for PAS, it’s unlikely the non-Malay voters can turn round and support Umno.

One thing almost certain is the by-elections – as in the Sarawak State Election – are likely to have lower turnout than in 2013: 88 per cent for Sungai Besar and 84 per cent for Kuala Kangsar.

With all the post-2013 realignments, especially the break-up of Pakatan Rakyat, out-of-town voters are just unlikely to rush back en mass to vote.

Hence, regardless if the by-elections are straight fights or three-corners, Umno will start with an upper hand in both by-elections despite Najib’s deepening 1MDB scandal.

To have the opposition winning these two seats to weaken Najib, the Umno/BN voter base must be substantially split, and not just suffering some attrition or abstention.

The ultimate determinant is then Mahathir’s resolve.

Will he go all out against Umno? Will he get Umno rebels especially his son Datuk Seri Mukhriz Mahathir and former deputy prime minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin to openly campaign against Umno? That will force Najib to sack them and formally split Umno.

Umno Secretary-General Tengku Adnan Mansor said if it was up to him, Muhkriz and Muhyiddin would be sacked.

Exactly that is the point. Najib is not Adnan. Najib has got no gut to sack Mukhriz and Muhyiddin. He wants to play safe by containing the rebellion to one prominent ex-member – Mahathir – and hopes that Mahathir’s campaign will lose momentum over time.

Similarly, Umno rebels especially Mukhriz too want to play safe. If Mahathir’s effort can force Umno warlords to abandon Najib while Mukhriz is still an Umno member, Mukhriz will be well-placed to be the de facto No. 3 in the post-Najib peace plan.

Not a parliamentarian now, he can never be the deputy president. But he can ask the probable next prime minister – Datuk Seri Zahid Hamidi or Datuk Seri Hishamuddin Hussein – to appoint him as a senator and then hold a key ministry.  

This is why Mukhriz will likely not campaign against Umno in these two by-elections so that Najib won’t be forced to sack him.

And if Mukhriz and co are so calculative,why  would Umno ranks-and-files in Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar openly support the Opposition and risk their political careers in Umno and all the patronage they are enjoying now?

Instead of leading an all-out war against Umno like how Tengku Razaleigh and Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim did it against Mahathir, Mahathir is hoping to overthrow a sitting prime minister by instigating sabotage and quiet rebellion amongst Umno voters.

Mahathir is no longer the fighter and gambler he was in the past. He burns his own bridge but not that of his son.

Can a calculative nonagenarian excite the Malaysian public? Yes, he seems to have done well so far in a Malaysia running short of heroes.

But can he excite enough Umno voters to do so? If Mahathir can’t risk his son’s political career, why should Umno grassroots risk their sons’ contracts or their daughters’ scholarships?

If Mahathir really wants to see Najib ousted by humiliating defeats in the by-election, he must get Mukhriz to campaign against Umno.  And If Mukhriz is prepared to be sacked, he might as well run as a candidate in one of the by-elections, say, Kuala Kangsar.

Mukhriz doing a Datuk Seri Shahrir Samad (as in the 1988 Johor Bahru by-election) would electrify the entire nation. And Umno will likely lose another by-election even if PAS battles out Amanah or PKR.

And Mukhriz will never be seen as a daddy’s boy anymore. Any ministerial appointment for him in the post-Najib alignment will be legitimately in his own right.

In leading a rebellion, Mahathir should learn from Anwar.

Anwar would tell protesters, “don’t talk about struggle if you are afraid of risk”. He would not be moved to tears by petitions and say, “there can’t be enough jail rooms to house one million petitioners”.

Come on, Mahathir, show your resolve and put your son on the front line.